- Unemployment holds at 4.3% in the three months to October
- Wage growth up to 5.2% – the first rise in more than a year
- Vacancy numbers fall again
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on the latest UK jobs figures:
“There is still a giant question mark hanging over official jobs figures as the ONS battles to increase the number of people responding to its Labour Force Survey. But even with that caveat it’s impossible to ignore the cracks that have been widening in the labour market, with vacancy numbers dropping off month after month.
“A sluggish economy isn’t exactly providing the fuel for job creation and realised fears about potential tax rises in the Budget have made employers cautious.
“These figures are backwards looking, but recruiters have said they are situated in the crow’s nest to provide a sort of early warning system. Their concerns about a potential recession on the horizon were given further weight by the latest PMI data which showed the private sector cut jobs at the fastest rate in four years this December as businesses reacted to tax changes.
“Today’s official figures do have a few bright spots, including a slight fall in the economic inactivity rate. Wage growth also rose for the first time in over a year up to 5.2% and busting inflation by 3%.
“Businesses want to keep skilled staff happy and, knowing a hike in the national living wage is on the cards next April, will have taken forward action when their own pay reviews were implemented.
“For workers, getting a bit more in their pockets will be welcome, but it has pushed the door even further closed on the slim chance that the Bank of England might deliver a surprise cut to interest rates later this week.”
