• Early payroll estimates for April show there were 28.3 million employees
• Up 97,000 in April 2021 compared to March 2021
• Still 772,000 below pre-pandemic levels
• 289,000 fewer under 25’s on the payroll compared with April 2020
• 161,000 more health and social workers on the pay roll – 275,000 fewer in accommodation and food services
• Median monthly pay up 9.8% compared with April 2020
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst comments on today’s unemployment and PAYE figures:
“Now we can have a drink inside our local there’s much to toast in this latest set of employment figures. The headline rate is down slightly at 4.8% but it’s the payroll data for April that really hints at how quickly reopening is firing up the economy. Compare the figures to pre-pandemic levels and there is a still a long way to go but the sector that bore the brunt of lockdown restrictions is already hiring. Job vacancies overall were up 8% on the last quarter and many hospitality bosses have spoken about their difficulty in recruiting and the possibility they may have to offer higher wages to lure people back to the sector.
“On the face of it wage growth is a concern with median monthly pay up 9.8% compared with the same period last year. But there are many factors at play which suggest this will even out as restrictions make way for reopening. Many of the jobs lost have been in lower paid sectors and despite current difficulties recruiting there is another big part of the puzzle that needs laying on the table.
“Latest figures from HMRC showed 4.2 million people were still on furlough at the end of March. Nobody expects all of them will return to the jobs they left. And the timing of the scheme’s end is potentially cause for concern, coming as the night’s draw in and outdoor socialising becomes harder.
“New variants are very much on the mind. Could they scupper June’s plans for a complete lifting of social distancing restrictions? Could they lead to a third or even forth wave? Without a crystal ball it’s impossible to predict what might happen next or how the economy would react. Right now, 10% unemployment seems unlikely but it’s not totally out of the question and both jobs figures and wage growth need to be watched carefully.”
