- Conditions still difficult for recruitment specialist
- Fee income falls year-on-year for 12th consecutive quarter
- Asia and the US showing signs of improvement, unlike the UK
- Recruiter itself stops cutting jobs
“Shares in recruitment specialist PageGroup are holding firm, despite a 12th consecutive quarter that shows a year-on-year drop in fee income, although this may be relatively cold comfort for long-suffering investors, as the shares stand at levels last seen in early 2003,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“The UK is offering little help to the company, after a 14th straight drop in fees here, but improvement in Asia and America means that PageGroup itself is finally adding jobs again, not cutting them, so there may be some grounds for optimism despite the cloud cast by the war in the Middle East.
Source: LSEG Refinitiv data.
“It can be argued these figures probably reflect budget decisions taken several months back, given the lengthy lead times involved in headcount changes by employers. This first-quarter update for 2026, therefore, will not yet capture the impact upon companies’ headcount and hiring plans of any knock-on effects from the Middle Eastern conflict.
“Even so, investors will now look to trading updates from peers Robert Walters on Wednesday and Hays on Thursday for any further insight into how employers see the world in the UK, and beyond.
“If there is any good news in PageGroup’s latest quarterly update, which covers the first three months of 2026, it is how the jobs specialist is starting to tentatively add to its own workforce again, after 13 quarters of reducing fee earner headcount. The fee earner total of 4,994 is still some 6% lower than a year ago, but it is 1% higher at the end of the first quarter than at the end of December 2025. Fee earner numbers are no higher now than they were in June 2017, but the first signs of stabilisation are welcome after a lengthy period of cuts.
Source: Company accounts.
“The rate of the year-on-year decline in fee earner headcount also continues to ease. It will be interesting to see if investors latch on to that at any stage, in the view that this may mean trading is no longer getting worse and that if it is no longer getting worse then at some stage it will start getting better.
“Net fees overall fell 4% year-on-year. That represented a slight deterioration from the 3% drop seen in the final three months of 2025, but the dark days of double-digit percentage declines may have ended, at least.
Source: Company accounts.
“The UK is offering little sign of encouragement, as is Europe thanks to ongoing softness in France, but Asia is leading the way and only currency movements mean America cannot point to five consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth in net fee income. Asia could yet a take a knock from any sustained increase in oil and gas prices, given the continent’s status as a heavy importer of energy, but at least there are some positives to be taken from the quarterly update.
“Analysts do not expect a speedy recovery in group-wide earnings, even after three sharp years of decline, although consensus forecasts suggest the dividend may stabilise following two deep cuts.
Source: Company accounts, Marketscreener, consensus analysts’ forecasts.
“Even this tepid turnaround could be under threat if the Middle Eastern war drags on, with damaging after-effects upon consumer and corporate confidence, but at least PageGroup’s balance sheet means the company is well placed to come through a further prolonged period of depressed trading.
Source: Company accounts, Marketscreener, consensus analysts’ forecasts.
“The days of special dividends and fat regular payments supported by hefty profits and a net cash balance sheet may be gone, at least for now, but the company carries only limited borrowings. Net debt was just £7 million as of the end of March, excluding lease liabilities.”
Source: Company accounts.
