Life expectancy drop likely to raise questions over future state pension age hikes

Tom Selby
11 January 2024
  • Average life expectancy for men and women in the UK has fallen significantly following the Coronavirus pandemic, new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows (National life tables – life expectancy in the UK – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk))
  • Life expectancy at birth in the UK was 78.6 years for men and 82.6 years for women in 2020-2022, down from 79.3 years for men and 83.0 years for women in 2017-19
  • Life expectancy at age 65 has also fallen by 22 weeks for men and 15 weeks for women over the same period
  • After decades of increases in life expectancy, improvements have ground to a halt, with life expectancy at birth back to the same level as 2010-2012 for women and slightly below the 2010-2012 level for men
  • While the figures do not account for potential future life expectancy improvements, they will place extra pressure on the next government to hold off on state pension age increases

Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell, comments:

“For decades it was taken as a given that life expectancy would continue increasing for each generation. However, even prior to the pandemic, life expectancy improvements had ground to a halt, and now the numbers are going backwards. This undoubtedly reflects the devastating impact of Coronavirus and will make it even more difficult for the next government to attempt to save some cash by hiking the state pension age.

“Under current legislation, the state pension age is set to increase to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046. However, the previous government stated its intention to bring forward the planned increase to age 68 to 2039 – although this was before the pandemic.

“Rumours of proposals to accelerate the rise in the state pension age, potentially to age 68 by the 2030s, surfaced again last year, but ministers eventually decided this would be too controversial and pushed the decision onto the next government.

“Bringing forward the scheduled hike in the state pension age to 68 for millions of Brits would raise billions of pounds for the Treasury, but it would also be deeply unpopular. While the ageing population continues to place huge strain on the public finances, these latest figures would make it extremely difficult for any government – either now or in the future – to justify a faster increase in the UK state pension age.”

Source: ONS

Tom Selby
Director of Public Policy

Tom is director of public policy at AJ Bell. He is a prominent spokesperson on retirement issues and his views are regularly sought by national print and broadcast media. Tom has successfully campaigned for a number of consumer-focused reforms, including banning pensions cold-calling and increasing pensions allowances, and he is passionate about improving outcomes for savers and retirees. Tom joined AJ Bell as senior analyst in April 2016, having previously spent seven years as a financial journalist. He has a degree in Economics from Newcastle University.

Contact details

Mobile: 07702 858 234
Email: tom.selby@ajbell.co.uk

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