The energy price cap will fall from July and the sun keeps shining on retailers

Danni Hewson
23 May 2025
  • Ofgem’s new price cap means average bills will fall by £129 a year from 1 July
  • Retail sales soar by a whopping 1.2% in April though March’s rise has been revised down
  • Food sales bounced back as good weather tempted people to dust off BBQs

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on Ofgem's energy price cap and the latest UK retail sales:

“Any fall in household bills is welcome but coming off the back of ‘Awful April’s’ barrage of increases, news that the energy price cap will fall in July is cause for celebration.

“The 7% drop wipes out April’s increase, but the cap is still higher than it was during the same period last year and there’s no sign of energy prices falling back to historic norms.

“People can shop about and get better deals if they’re happy to lock into fixed rate deals, but it’s important to consider how much you will save, especially as the price cap is expected to fall back again in October.

“Donald Trump’s tariff policy might have caused mayhem on stock markets and prompted global growth forecasts to be downgraded but it’s also played a part in supressing wholesale oil and gas prices.

“The fall in the cost of energy is expected to filter through to the UK’s headline inflation rate which jumped up to 3.5% in April, heaping more misery on households already weary after a cost of living crisis which dented living standards.

“The sunshine has helped provide a bit of an antidote to April’s gloom and coupled with a late Easter gave people an excuse to get out and splurge.

“The latest GfK consumer confidence survey also shows that consumers are once again prepared to spend on big ticket items, and the warm weather has pushed many people out into their gardens and then out to garden centres.

“Rattan couches, swinging seat sets, firepits and BBQs have all become must haves if you want to turn your outside spaces into entertaining hotspots.

“It’s notable that food sales bounced back significantly in April as people chose to make the most of a late holiday and the good weather with family feasts that didn’t skimp on any of the trimmings.

“The question is, what happens when the Great British Weather returns to normal service, especially if businesses pass on increased labour costs as they have warned they are likely to do.”

Danni Hewson
Head of Financial Analysis
Danni spent more than 19 years at the BBC, presenting and reporting on business news across a variety of programmes – including BBC Breakfast, BBC News Channel, BBC Look North and latterly Radio 5 Live’s flagship business programme ‘Wake up to Money’. She is now responsible for producing analysis and commentary across a broad range of subjects at AJ Bell, from financial markets, to economics and personal finance.

Contact details

Mobile: 07593 451 437

Email: danni.hewson@ajbell.co.uk

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